Sample forecast

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53.1%

Customer growth (annually)

65.2%

Revenue growth (annually)

62

Headcount (year 5)

$4.1MM

Net cash flow (cumulative)

Revenue ($)

Cash flow ($)

Year 5 Snapshot

41,357

Paying customers

$10.6 M

Revenue

33.1%

Profit margin

$4.4 M

Cash balance

Paying customers (end of year)

Revenue drivers (Monthly)

Cash & debt ($ end of year)

Expense composition

Headcount (end of year)

($ in thousands)
Line item Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Revenue $1,419 $2,589 $4,606 $7,399 $10,576
(-) COGS 345 574 941 1,440 2,036
Gross profit 1,074 2,015 3,665 5,958 8,540
Gross margin 76% 78% 80% 81% 81%
(-) Sales & marketing 420 676 1,008 1,433 1,809
(-) Research & development 313 449 720 1,039 1,277
(-) General & administrative 328 481 772 1,137 1,494
(-) Expense cushion 106 161 250 361 458
Profit (EBITDA) -93 249 915 1,989 3,502
Profit margin -7% 10% 20% 27% 33%
(-) Interest 0 0 0 0 0
Pre-tax income -93 249 915 1,989 3,502
(-) Taxes 0 12 46 99 175
Net income $-93 $236 $869 $1,889 $3,327
($ in thousands)
Line item Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Net income $-93 $236 $869 $1,889 $3,327
Change in working capital 43 78 138 222 317
Capital expenditures 71 129 230 370 529
Financing activities 0 0 0 0 0
Cash flow -207 29 501 1,297 2,481
Unlevered free cash flow (UFCF) -207 29 501 1,297 2,481
($ in thousands)
Account Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Cash balance $142 $171 $672 $1,969 $4,450
Debt balance 0 0 0 0 0
Net debt -$142 -$171 -$672 -$1,969 -$4,450
Signups Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Beginning signups NA NA NA NA NA
New signups NA NA NA NA NA
Growth rate -- NA NA NA NA
Ending signups NA NA NA NA NA
Paid conversion rate (30-day) NA NA NA NA NA

Paying customers Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Beginning paying customers NA NA NA NA NA
New paying customers NA NA NA NA NA
Growth rate -- NA NA NA NA
Churned customers NA NA NA NA NA
Monthly churn rate -- NA NA NA NA
Ending paying customers NA NA NA NA NA
Growth rate -- NA NA NA NA

Revenue Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Monthly revenue per paying customer NA NA NA NA NA
Revenue (in thousands) NA NA NA NA NA
Growth rate -- NA NA NA NA

Headcount costs

($ in thousands)
Department Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Customer support $213 $334 $516 $759 $1,063
Sales & marketing 297 445 631 817 1,002
Research & development 307 439 702 1,009 1,228
General & administrative $219 $307 $483 $746 $965


Assumptions

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  • Beginning amounts
  • Signed up customers
  • Monthly new signups
  • Paying customers

Drivers Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Monthly new signup growth
Monthly churn rate
Paid conversion rate (30-day)
Monthly revenue per paying customer ($)

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